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Case Studies

Each case study follows the same analytical structure: Story, Map, Breakdown, Benchmark, Recommendations, Discussion Questions. Click to expand any case below, or open the full page.

Vietnam: Engineered Growth and Its Limits — Read full case

Vietnam barely grew coffee before the 1990s. Through deliberate government policy, the country went from near-zero to the world's second-largest coffee producer in about 15 years. Today approximately 600,000 farmers supply roughly 20% of global coffee volume, almost entirely Robusta.

Key numbers: Farmers earn ~95% of the export price (best in class). Yields are the highest globally at 3+ MT/ha. But the environmental footprint is enormous: coffee irrigation in the Central Highlands consumes an estimated 2,822 tons of water per household per year.

Central tension: By almost every conventional measure, Vietnam's coffee sector is a success story. High productivity, efficient market structure, strong farmer returns. And yet the water drawdown is unsustainable and the monoculture concentration amplifies shocks.

Rwanda: Premium Positioning on Tiny Farms — Read full case

Rwanda produces less than 1% of global coffee but has positioned itself as a premium origin through investment in coffee washing stations and quality infrastructure. Farmers earn ~54% of the export price.

Key numbers: A typical farm is 0.1 hectares. At average yields of ~600 kg/ha, the farmer earns about $160/year from coffee. The living income requirement is ~$2,500/year. Even doubling the farmer share would not close the gap.

Central tension: Premium positioning has delivered higher per-kilogram prices, but the fundamental constraint is farm size. No value chain intervention can close a $2,340/year living income gap on a 0.1-hectare plot.

Honduras: Central America's Quiet Giant — Read full case

Honduras is the largest coffee producer in Central America and the sixth-largest in the world. Production quadrupled from 1990 to 2017, then crashed after Hurricanes Eta and Iota in 2020.

Key numbers: 5,800 thousand bags (2025), 100% Arabica, ~80% farmer share. Currently at 76% of the 2017 peak. GDP per capita of $3,400, over 40% rural population.

Central tension: Not about institutional design, market structure, or quality positioning. It is about resilience: how does a smallholder-dominated, export-dependent sector survive compounding climate shocks?

Colombia: Strong Institutions, Eroding Margins — Read full case

Archival case from 2017-2023 lectures. Market data may be outdated but the institutional analysis remains relevant.

Colombia has arguably the strongest institutional infrastructure of any coffee-producing country. The FNC provides extension services, research, quality control, and a guaranteed purchase price. Farmers earn ~80% of the export price.

Central tension: Institutional strength came at a cost. When farming economics deteriorated (la roya, rising costs), the government spent an estimated $500-700M on farmer subsidies. The question: when does institutional support become institutional cost?

Ethiopia: Traceability Lost and Found — Read full case

Archival case from 2017-2020 lectures. Ethiopia's coffee sector has changed significantly since, including ECX reforms.

Ethiopia is the birthplace of coffee, with extraordinary genetic diversity and some of the most distinctive flavor profiles in the world. The ECX was designed to solve real problems (price manipulation, information asymmetry) but eliminated traceability for specialty coffee, destroying premiums.

Central tension: The best coffee genetics on the planet, undermined by a market design that made its best lots anonymous. The cooperative channel demonstrated that traceability has quantifiable economic value ($20M+/year from TechnoServe interventions).